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Martin Laplante

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Thu, 03 Apr 2008

The Commuting Turnaround in Canada

Statistics Canada in a recently released analysis of the 2006 Census, reports that fewer people commute to work than in 2001. The proportion has gone from 73.8% in 2001 to 72.3% in 2006, a drop of 1.5%.

Break out the champagne, things are turning around! Not so fast. A smaller percentage are driving, but they are driving 5.6% further.

In the past 5 years, the number of people commuting 25km or more has gone up by 18%, according to a different recent study. And population is growing most quickly in the cities with the longest commutes. Sprawl is alive and well.

People may use the car less to commute to work, but the vast majority of kilometres driven are not for work but for other tasks like shopping and leisure. Home-to-work and work-to-home trips account for 23% of kilometres driven by light vehicles.

A reversal in the upward trend of kilometres travelled was predicted a few years ago, at least in the US. The aging population is a factor, and the average number of passengers per car can't keep on going down now that it has almost reached 1.0. But actual reductions in total kilometres driven as a result of conscious action are slow in coming.

So, bottom line, a smaller percentage in commuting does not necessarily mean less total kilometres travelled because of all the other factors. Not necessarily, but was there a reduction? According to the quarterly Canadian Vehicle Survey statistics, the answer is "maybe yes". Look at the boring graph, total vehicle kilometres driven, in billions, per quarter. The latest quarter 2007 Q3 seems a little lower than the preious quarter and than the same quarter a year before. Q3 is typically higher than Q2, and last year it wasn't. But looking at the graph, it's a little early to declare a trend.

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