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Martin Laplante

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Wed, 01 Oct 2008

Alberta Overtakes Ontario in Coal-Fired Generation

It may already have happened or it will happen soon. With Alberta building new coal-fired plants and Ontario shutting them down, as of 2006, the National Energy Board reports that Alberta's coal-fired generation capacity equals Ontario's This comes after Ontario's shutdown of the Lakeview Generating Station and the opening of Alberta's Genesee 3 station. Ontario intends to shut down all remaining coal-fired plants in the next 6 years while Alberta intends to build more.

In 2006 Ontario's coal-fired capacity stood at 6329 MW, while Alberta's was at 6217 MW. Since very little new coal-fired capacity has been added or removed in the intervening years, why do I say that Alberta may have overtaken Ontario? Well it's hard to tell from released figures, but essentially Alberta uses coal for base load while Ontario is increasingly using coal for peak load. That means that Ontario's coal-fired generators are burning less coal than before. The 4 remaining coal-fired plants, excluding Lakeview, generated 36,224 GWh in total in 2003 and only 28,179 in 2007, without significant change in capacity. Current figures for Alberta show that its electricity generation from coal is more like 45,000 GWh. Those figures are from different sources, but they are roughly comparable.

So in the future will the drops in GHG emissions from Ontario's electricity generation be sufficient to compensate the increase in Alberta's? Ontario Power Generation is awfully quiet about the schedule for further shutdowns. And Alberta, to be fair, will be replacing many old inefficient coal plants with somewhat more efficient ones. There are even plans to burn bitumen directly without the energy-intensive process to produce synthetic crude. Not a bad idea, actually. It's certainly better than coal and not processing the bitumen frees up a lot of natural gas for more constructive uses. Since we probably already have more bitumen production than will be economically feasible to exploit, with the world turning away from high-carbon fuels, this is one way to save the investment in the short term.

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